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1 March 2024,06:43
Weekly Outlook
1 March 2024, 06:43
In January, private payroll growth decelerated to 107,000, falling short of expectations and reflecting a decrease from the downwardly revised figure of 158,000 in December. While this data implies a prudent commencement in the private sector labor market, it is noteworthy that overall economic growth continues to demonstrate resilience. Market observers could anticipate an improvement in the ensuing month.
The Bank of Canada maintained the benchmark interest rate at 5% during its latest update in January. This decision followed three consecutive instances of keeping the rate unchanged throughout 2023. Against the backdrop of recent inflation report from Statistics Canada, market participants and experts are expressing a high degree of confidence in the likelihood of yet another forthcoming rate hold.
The resolution of the European Central Bank in January 2024 to maintain the status quo – preserving the main refinancing rate at 4.50% and sustaining the rates for the marginal lending facility and deposit facility at 4.75% and 4.00%, respectively – delivers a clear message to the business sector. The prevailing emphasis is on stability, prioritizing it over adaptability for the time being. There is heightened anticipation in the market that the central bank will persist in maintaining its existing stance, especially given recent expressions of policy views by the ECB’s Vice President Guindos.
The US economy created 353,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in January, surpassing the expectation of 185,000 by economists. Given the robust U.S economy and steady job growth, the market labor market remains resilient and bullish, reflecting ongoing recovery across various sectors.
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